Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 New York 20,186
2 New Jersey 19,042
3 Massachusetts 15,532
4 Rhode Island 15,421
5 District of Columbia 14,197
6 Connecticut 12,833
7 Delaware 11,065
8 Illinois 10,902
9 Maryland 10,735
10 Louisiana 10,731
11 Nebraska 9,206
12 Iowa 8,247
13 Arizona 7,235
14 South Dakota 7,117
15 Mississippi 7,063
16 Michigan 6,796
17 Virginia 6,794
18 Pennsylvania 6,719
19 Indiana 6,460
20 Alabama 6,122
21 Minnesota 5,842
22 Georgia 5,791
23 Utah 5,479
24 Colorado 5,300
25 Arkansas 5,156
26 Tennessee 5,083
27 North Carolina 5,039
28 New Mexico 5,038
29 South Carolina 4,795
30 Florida 4,529
31 California 4,525
32 North Dakota 4,322
33 Nevada 4,297
34 Wisconsin 4,279
35 Kansas 4,207
36 New Hampshire 4,077
37 Texas 3,962
38 Washington 3,912
39 Ohio 3,833
40 Kentucky 3,115
41 Missouri 3,022
42 Oklahoma 2,657
43 Idaho 2,252
44 Maine 2,199
45 Wyoming 2,068
46 Puerto Rico 2,043
47 Vermont 1,857
48 Oregon 1,646
49 West Virginia 1,418
50 Alaska 1,174
51 Montana 670
52 Hawaii 566

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Arizona 409
2 South Carolina 203
3 Arkansas 180
4 Florida 176
5 Utah 161
6 North Carolina 140
7 Texas 140
8 Alabama 123
9 Nevada 116
10 Iowa 112
11 Georgia 108
12 Tennessee 103
13 California 98
14 Oklahoma 97
15 Delaware 94
16 Minnesota 73
17 South Dakota 70
18 Nebraska 68
19 Virginia 68
20 New Mexico 65
21 Maryland 58
22 Missouri 57
23 District of Columbia 55
24 Illinois 54
25 Idaho 52
26 Indiana 50
27 Wisconsin 50
28 Washington 49
29 Ohio 48
30 Oregon 45
31 Puerto Rico 43
32 Kansas 42
33 North Dakota 41
34 Kentucky 39
35 New Jersey 38
36 New York 37
37 Colorado 36
38 Pennsylvania 32
39 Massachusetts 30
40 Wyoming 30
41 Alaska 29
42 Connecticut 29
43 Michigan 29
44 Louisiana 27
45 New Hampshire 23
46 West Virginia 23
47 Rhode Island 21
48 Maine 19
49 Montana 19
50 Hawaii 12
51 Vermont 12
52 Mississippi 0

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New York 1,587
2 New Jersey 1,448
3 Connecticut 1,194
4 Massachusetts 1,139
5 Rhode Island 843
6 District of Columbia 755
7 Louisiana 667
8 Michigan 610
9 Illinois 541
10 Maryland 507
11 Pennsylvania 505
12 Delaware 446
13 Indiana 377
14 Mississippi 316
15 Colorado 286
16 Minnesota 250
17 New Hampshire 249
18 Georgia 245
19 Ohio 230
20 New Mexico 223
21 Iowa 217
22 Virginia 188
23 Arizona 185
24 Alabama 171
25 Washington 166
26 Missouri 158
27 Nevada 158
28 Florida 147
29 California 139
30 Nebraska 130
31 Wisconsin 127
32 South Carolina 126
33 Kentucky 121
34 North Carolina 118
35 North Dakota 108
36 Oklahoma 93
37 South Dakota 91
38 Vermont 89
39 Kansas 88
40 Maine 75
41 Tennessee 75
42 Texas 75
43 Arkansas 74
44 Idaho 60
45 Utah 49
46 West Virginia 49
47 Puerto Rico 46
48 Oregon 45
49 Wyoming 34
50 Montana 18
51 Alaska 13
52 Hawaii 12

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Massachusetts 4
2 Connecticut 3
3 Idaho 3
4 Illinois 3
5 Arizona 2
6 District of Columbia 2
7 Indiana 2
8 Louisiana 2
9 Maryland 2
10 Minnesota 2
11 New Jersey 2
12 New Mexico 2
13 New York 2
14 Rhode Island 2
15 South Carolina 2
16 Alabama 1
17 Arkansas 1
18 California 1
19 Delaware 1
20 Florida 1
21 Georgia 1
22 Michigan 1
23 Nebraska 1
24 Nevada 1
25 New Hampshire 1
26 North Carolina 1
27 Ohio 1
28 Pennsylvania 1
29 South Dakota 1
30 Washington 1
31 Wisconsin 1
32 Wyoming 1
33 Alaska 0
34 Colorado 0
35 Hawaii 0
36 Iowa 0
37 Kansas 0
38 Kentucky 0
39 Maine 0
40 Mississippi 0
41 Missouri 0
42 Montana 0
43 North Dakota 0
44 Oklahoma 0
45 Oregon 0
46 Puerto Rico 0
47 Tennessee 0
48 Texas 0
49 Utah 0
50 Vermont 0
51 Virginia 0
52 West Virginia 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 129,918 1 99
Lake Tennessee 98,204 2 99
Dakota Nebraska 87,436 3 99
Buena Vista Iowa 84,964 4 99
Lincoln Arkansas 79,545 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 11,600 224 92
Richland South Carolina 6,434 538 82
Orange California 3,282 1092 65
York South Carolina 2,897 1210 61
Pierce Washington 2,863 1224 61

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Hancock Georgia 3,784 1 99
Randolph Georgia 3,393 2 99
Terrell Georgia 3,165 3 99
Early Georgia 3,042 4 99
Northampton Virginia 2,391 5 99
Richland South Carolina 190 642 79
Davidson Tennessee 137 804 74
Pierce Washington 103 956 69
Orange California 85 1068 66
York South Carolina 39 1483 52

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons